Surveys of Consumers

When you prefer a political party, chances are you like their policies—including their economic policies—and think they will make life better overall while the other party’s will make things worse. Democratic-leaning folks argued a Harris administration would be better for public investment and consumer spending … and that a Trump White House would pump inflation and choke growth with higher interest rates. Republican types posited a Trump administration would drive consumer spending and business investment with friendlier taxes and easier regulation … and that a Harris administration would sap investment incentives. If these folks drink their own Kool-Aid, then it will logically affect their own outlook. Overall, the share of consumers expecting a Harris presidency fell from 63% last month to 57% in October.

About the surveys

“Given the tightness of the race in its final weeks, consumers were fully aware that the result could go either way. Gift Nifty was trading around 24,666 level, a premium of nearly 68 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices. Democrats’ and Republicans’ economic opinions are widely known—the U-Michigan Survey isn’t the first to document the flip.

The Current Index fell to 63.9, down from 64.9 in October and below last November’s 68.3. The Expectations Index rose to 76.9, up from 74.1 in October and above last November’s 56.8. On Friday, the Indian stock market benchmark indices gained almost 2% each, with the Nifty 50 reclaiming the 24,500 mark and the Sensex surpassing the 80,500 mark. One, they aren’t Kings or Queens and therefore can’t do much, without Congress, to actually affect everyday commerce and investment incentives. Two, they are all just politicians, and politicians have a long record of saying X on the campaign trail and then not doing it … and sometimes doing Y or Q instead if that is how the wind is blowing. It is a grand bipartisan tradition, and it usually renders high hopes and big fears of any administration similarly off base.

• A short shopping season, however, may force the hands of retailers who are looking to hold back on deep promotions.
• It is a grand bipartisan tradition, and it usually renders high hopes and big fears of any administration similarly off base.
• To calculate the CSI, first compute the relative scores (the percent giving favorable replies minus the percent giving unfavorable replies, plus 100) for each of the five index questions.
• Single-family housing starts dropped 14.8% on a year-on-year basis in July.
• We will be discussing this and more when we provide updates for the US and global economies in our Global Outlook December 2024, presented to clients this week.

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The index rises when consumers regain confidence in the economy, which portends increased consumer spending and thus economic growth. This growth, in turn, leads to greater interest from foreign investors, which results in the increased value of the dollar against other foreign currencies. Historically speaking, the value of the dollar has usually risen whenever fortfs review the Michigan CSI has come in at a higher level than was anticipated and fallen when the index came in lower.

Consumer sentiment inches up for fourth consecutive month

The Expectations Index rose to 77.1, up from 67.4 in December and above last January’s 62.6. The ann kharchenko – forexarticles Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 77.2 in the April 2024 survey, down from 79.4 in March and above last April’s 63.7. The Current Index fell to 79.0, down from 82.5 in March and above last April’s 68.5.

Meanwhile, financial markets are betting on a 74.5% likelihood of the US Fed rate cut by 25 basis points in its September policy meeting, with a diminishing 25.5% chance of a super-sized 50 bps cut, CME’s FedWatch tool showed. Asian markets traded mixed, while gitlab vs azure devops the US stock futures gained in overnight trading after the S&P 500 registered its best week of 2024. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2%, having rallied 2.8% last week. Partisan bias can create huge blind spots if you allow it to infect your outlook. It could lead you to avoid or pile into certain sectors and industries, depending on what you think will or won’t thrive under the next government.

Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and behavioral finance. Adam received his master’s in economics from The New School for Social Research and his Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in sociology. He is a CFA charterholder as well as holding FINRA Series 7, 55 & 63 licenses. He currently researches and teaches economic sociology and the social studies of finance at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. These patterns reflect the two groups’ contrasting views on how Trump’s policies will influence the economy. LSEG offers the world’s most comprehensive historical database for numerical macroeconomic and cross-asset financial data which started in the 1950s and has grown into an indispensable resource for financial professionals.

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Republicans’ views of their personal finances, buying conditions for durable goods and year-ahead business conditions all softened. The year-ahead economic outlook has risen for four consecutive months, with September’s gains reflected across age, income and education groups. A year ago, more than half of consumers expected bad times for the economy in the next year; now, that share is 28%. The minimum monthly change required for significance at the 95% level in the Sentiment Index is 4.8 points; for the Current Index and Expectations Index, the minimum is 6 points. The survey queries consumers on their views of their own personal finances, as well as the short-term and long-term state of the U.S. economy.