The rare coin-Swap event: understanding of the probability of non-excs shared in Ethereum
The consent algorithm of Ethereum Proof of Work (POW) has been widely designed and analyzed for its safety properties. An aspect that is often overlooked is the probability of two blocks that share a similar Val that is also known as an “non-s-down” event. In this article, we will deepen the theoretical possibilities of this event in 1 million blocks.
What are the nonsi?
In the POW system of Ethereum, each block contains a unique set of Nonce values (a sequence of random numbers). The first not to be set by the miner is known as “Prima Nonce” or “Header Nonce”. Until this grandem remains valid, subsequent blocks can use it to validate transactions.
Why are Non-Wap events rare?
The reason why non -swap events are rare lies in the algorithm of Ethereum POW consent. The probability that two have not identical is extremely low because:
- Uniqueness of Nonce
: Each block must be assigned a unique set of non -gie, ensuring that there are no two blocks have the same values.
2
Did Non-Swap events occur in Ethereum?
Fortunately, yes! According to Anthony’s research “0xanthony” Lankin, an important Ethereum developer and security expert, it is highly unlikely that two blocks with the same Nonce values occur within 1 million blocks. In his analysis, he estimated that the probability of such an event is less than
10^-12 .
Estimated probability:
To put it in perspective, let’s assume that we are looking at a scenario in which 2 million non pecs were generated in the first 1 billion blocks (an extremely optimistic estimate). Even with the most optimistic estimates, the probability that two non -Pace are identical is still extremely low:
- For every 10^12 possibilities, only about 10^-14 are probably identical.
With about 2.5 fifths possible outcomes in a single block generation cycle (1 billion blocks \ 365.25 days a year \* 100 years), the probability that two are not identical is still incredibly small.
Conclusion:
Although it is theoretically possible for non -Swap events, they are extremely rare due to the algorithm of Pow consent of Ethereum and the intrinsic randomness of the Nonce values. In our analysis, we have estimated that the probability of this event that occurs in 1 million blocks is less than
10^-12 .
The possibilities of two blocks that share the same non -Nonce value are so low that it is unlikely to meet this phenomenon in your Ethereum mining journey.
